After multiple winning days in a row, we thought we were in heaven or in some sort of Sports Betting Disneyland knowing in the back of our minds that variance was going to eventually catch up a bit and hit us one way or the other. It was not a terrible day, we did not have a big card for the day but it was the way of how the results came what made it a bad day and had us realize variance was here.
It was through absolute pure bad beats that got to that day. Before it all started, we began our day with an easy Soccer total over play, a beautiful one. We all thought, here we go, another winning day in the making as we were 1-0 already cashing our first play of the day. We proceeded with early baseball, everything good. Cubs game had a delayed start but Rockies started the game with the lead as we had them both in a small two team parlay. Several rain delays after, momentum shifting and like 6 hours after the original start of the game that the Cubs made a comeback and took the lead in the 8th inning. Lead that they blew, tied the game again but guess what? Rain delay again! Dbacks cameback from that delay and won the game. Nothing we can really control, weather is something we can’t do nothing about. The way this game played out is something we can’t handicap. All fine, it was just a half unit (0.5u) 2 Team Parlay.
On to the afternoon/night plays we went. Little did we know, we were going to meet variance in the most disgusting ways with the following plays. We go to the WNBA and bet on the Atlanta Dream +12 Spread, played out beautifully for 3 quarters were they end up, up by 6 which is basically like saying they were up by 18 as spread +12 + 6 pts lead the only way we could have lost that one was if they get outscored by 19 points in the 4th quarter or the last 10 minutes of the game. I am sure we all said, we got it locked, professional basketball how in the world a team of talented woman who have been playing well for 3 quarters will get outscored for so much in 10 minutes having such lead and us having such spread… SURPRISE! A miraculous 4th quarter were Minnesota outscored Atlanta 23-2, yes you read that right only TWO points were scored in 10 minutes by ATL and they were free throws! Hard to imagine how such thing can be possible. All we know is that we worked that game perfectly, we were on the right side and if not, had we had Minnesota we would have had to hope our team outscores their opponent 23-2 for us to cover the spread. Yeah I know, SILLY!
On to baseball we went for our last two plays. We had Yankees over 8, that fell short. Nothing or no one to blame except Kluber who pitched a hell of a complete game and didn’t let the Yankees score their fair share of runs to help us out and hit that. Ok I can take that one, bad read or you just simply never calculate a pitcher who has not have his best season will pitch a complete game out of no where. So moving on we still got an Under 9.5 in Mariners vs Royals game. It played out beautifully until the 7th. 3-3 game, Mariners had a used up bullpen and they put a kid that they just called back up recently. He allows, 2 runs in the 7th. All good game is 5-3, they sent the same guy out for the 8th! Oh no, he allows a Home Run game is not 6-3 and in the back of my head I am like: oh no, not again please. To the 9th we go and Royals have the chance to close this game with a 1,2,3 out inning with one of the best closer in the game. Herrera gets the first two outs, perfect one out to go and let’s get it because Robinson Cano is on deck… NOPE! Walks Segura on 4 pitches and here comes Cano. Hold on, Segura on 1st, defensive indifference as the lead is 3 runs they don’t care about the guy on 1st so he steals 1st! I know you thought the same thing, here comes the base hit! Well I would have loved to get a clean base hit but no! Line drive to 3rd base that you have been caught, deflected enough, slow speed of the ball for the guy on 2nd to score and there was our Under gone in the 9th inning with two outs!!
I do not write all this to whine, in 7 years I have seen similar things or worst. It is part of this industry and you have to deal with it and stay focus. I wrote this to not only summarize our day which at the end since the card was not big and we hit soccer earlier wasn’t terrible but to show you that in Sports betting we win (like with soccer), we lose (like with the Yankees total) and we learn like with those two plays that we should have not lost by a basket or a 23-2 4th quarter in WNBA, or by being one out away from a 9 runs game that would have nailed our under 9.5. We learned that what is important is not the outcome but being on the right side. Being on the right team, or total and not in the opposite side hoping for miracles. Every time we are on it, we will win more than what we lose because not everyday is going to be like this. We learned that we need to be discipline because a game/play/bet can slip from our hands in the most unimaginable ways and then if we get out of line we won’t be able to recover from it. That is just how sports betting works. I thank you all for being part of my journey and coming along with me, listening to my advice and staying discipline because nobody wins a marathon running it like a 100m sprint. On to the next day guys!